“Fun” with numbers

By: Robert | September 18th, 2007

Maddeningly inconsistent. That’s what the numbers say about everyone’s favorite north Texas MLS team. And while I’m always hesitant to follow the numbers when it comes to the beautiful game I believe those adjectives ring true. When on form FC Dallas is one of the best sides in the league, playing beautiful attacking soccer that can only be matched by one or two other teams in the league. But when they are off, they can be very poor especially at the defensive end of the park.

Here’s a statistical breakdown of the Hoops season for the numerically inclined (note: these stats do not reflect US Open Cup play but do include SuperLiga and in-season friendly results):

G GA Ppg GD Trend

April 1.16 1.5 1.16 -2 DWLWLL

May 1.5 1.25 2.25 +1 WWWL

June 1 1.16 1.66 -2 LWWLWD

July 1.71 2 1.28 -2 WLLDDDL

August 1.33 1 2 +1 WWL

September* 2 2.67 1 -3 LWL

* Three games remaining

The first thing that pops out is a “duh” inducing comment that when the Hoops score more goals than they allow they are a championship quality side – in MLS anything approaching two points per game is silverware worthy – but that has only happened two times this season (May, August.) And out of all the legit championship contenders they are the only ones with a negative goal differential. Its cliché to use the Jekyll and Hyde analogy to describe a side as inconsistent as the Hoops but you can’t argue with its usage.

What should stand out the most is the fact that in the months in which FC Dallas scored the most they have not been the most successful periods (July, September.) One could craft a legitimate argument by saying that pressing forward exposes a weak back four to opposing counter-attacks, because when the Hoops score a little less (May, August) they defend a little better and win a little more. Of course circumstance tells a tale as well, but it definitely should be a talking point because the counter to that argument is that goals lead to excitement which leads to ratings and the success of the league.

Another thing to consider for this stretch run is that MLS’ Playoff structure rewards the hottest team in the league, not the best; it’s therefore paramount to be improving as a side as the season unfolds. But since SuperLiga play ended for the Hoops they have tread water by alternating wins and loses since the beginning of August. And while there are still six games left to find proper form, they need to be getting on with it as I don’t believe any MLS side is talented enough to simply turn it on or off at a whim.

Soccer is an analog game in a digital world so numbers must always be taken with a grain of salt but these statistics point to unnerving trends as the Hoops make a run at MLS glory. There is still time to right the ship but you have to wonder if in Dallas the FC is beginning to stand for “False contender.”

HOOPS PRIDE!

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