FC Dallas #1…in the west…for now

By: Robert | June 11th, 2007

Wow, apparently I have no clue about my readers, considering the response or lack thereof to my post on Ramon Nunez. In my humble opinion (okay, it’s not that humble, but still…) that Ramon Nunez piece is a brilliant tongue-in-cheek analysis of his game, but no one read it so I guess its like a tree falling in the forest.

I was working on a Juan Toja post but I’m going to hold off on that now because it may seem like I’m just hyper-reactive to Saturday’s Drederick Tatum-style beat down of LA (LA blogger Laurie said she hated Dallas and we don’t take attacks, even obscure, indirect, non-personal ones, lying down…I wrote down the post where she said those exact words but then I lost the paper so forgive me, +1 if you can find it) I don’t want to seem hyper-reactive (at least not on the Toja-issue) so allow me to focus on the team for a minute; Hoops fans, there are two ways to look at our season a third of the way through: We are either properly poised to make a run towards greatness or we’re about to be severely let down. I’m not here to yell “the sky is falling,” but if you if you look at the numbers you’ll realize that our position at the top of the western conference table (someone remind me to do a post on why two conferences is good for MLS) is tenuous at best (I know numerical analysis is not the most fun thing in the world, but go with me here, not only do I have a point but I have a feeling I should probably do a 180 from my Ramon Nunez post.)

Unless something changes the FC Dallas defense will keep us from being a championship-caliber team. Everyone wants their offense to create more chances and to take more of the ones they create, but our offense will be fine, and even with loss of Kenny Cooper. The Hoops are in the top tier of the league in goals scored (17) but alarmingly third from the bottom in goals allowed (17) and that zero-sum goal differential is not a harbinger of success. Since 2003 the last eight Supporter’s Shield winners have averaged a goal differential of plus 11.75, the only team to hold the shield and not even be close to that number was FC Dallas last season (plus 4). Do not expect a statistical anomaly to repeat itself. Critics of my theory will point to Landon Donovan going nuts and single-handedly leading the LA Galaxy to the title in 2005 (LA was minus 1) or DC United (plus 1) lifting the trophy in 2004, but those are the playoffs where anything can and will happen. A sign of true strength is shown over an arduous 32 game schedule. And right now our defense needs to tighten up because we literally and metaphorically got nothing.

Even though we just put a Shaolin monk-style beat down on LA (Someone tell Laurie do not call-out Dallas, that’s a warning to everybody else as well.) we’re dropping too many points; since 2003 the past eight conference champions have averaged 1.68 points per contest and right now we’re picking up only 1.58. Now I know a 4% slip may seem inconsequential but over that 4-year time span only Kansas City and Columbus in 2004 have averaged fewer points per game (1.53.) than what we’re getting now. And while FC Dallas may be the best in the west, there are three teams out east (KC, NY, NE) with a better points-per-game average. We’re in a good starting position, but clearly over the last two-thirds of the season, there is work to be done.

Fortunately we’re close, it doesn’t take much to turn a 1-1 draw into a 1-0 victory (I’m discussing defense here so I can’t say a 2-1 victory) or a 1-0 loss to a 0-0 draw (defense remember.) FC Dallas is on the cusp of greatness and a little bit of work can change what could be to what is. But I’m not worried, because this is Dallas, where our problems have come to realize the FC stands for “Find & Correct” (I know I kinda cheated there but you have to admit it works perfectly.)

HOOPS PRIDE!

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